Shares of the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) climbed further on Wednesday, ending the day up around 3% at a session high of ₹11,198, after reports that Morgan Stanley had revised its view on the commodity bourse. The broker is said to have raised its target price significantly and upgraded its rating, citing stronger trading revenue and an improved earnings outlook.
MCX share price outlook
The reported upgrade from Morgan Stanley lifted the spotlight on MCX after the global brokerage increased its target to ₹11,135 from ₹6,710 and shifted to an “Equal weight” rating, according to media coverage. Mint could not independently verify the brokerage note, but the report attributed the revision to a sharp rise in average daily transaction revenue (ADTR), driven by heightened price action across key commodities.
Morgan Stanley has reportedly boosted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates by about 15% for FY26, 20% for FY27 and 24% for FY28. The firm’s modelling suggests that if the current ADTR of roughly ₹104 million is sustained across FY27–FY28, MCX could trade at nearer 35x price-to-earnings, compared with the 50x FY27E and 47.5x FY28E multiples implied by the revised forecasts. That 35x level would represent only a modest premium to MCX’s long-term average.
The upgrade comes after a year of strong performance for the exchange’s stock. After a slow start to 2025, MCX shares gathered momentum from March onwards and breached the ₹10,000 mark in mid-November. The stock has gained approximately 80% in 2025, becoming one of the top-performing names among capital markets stocks.
Market participants point to a sustained increase in trading activity in bullion contracts as a primary catalyst. Rising gold and silver prices have encouraged hedging and speculative flows, while a structural shift — notably the move to monthly expiries for bullion contracts — has broadened participation and helped diversify MCX’s revenue mix.
Analysts at HDFC Securities expect bullion to contribute nearly 40% of total premium income by Q4FY27, underscoring how precious metals have become central to the exchange’s recent revenue surprise. Higher ADTR from bullion and other commodities has improved near-term visibility on transaction fee income, supporting the revised earnings trajectory.
Investors should note that valuation remains a consideration. Even with upgraded earnings, the stock trades at elevated multiples relative to many peers, and any reversal in commodity price momentum or a drop in volumes could pressure revenue and margins. The brokerage upgrade, while constructive, is conditioned on the persistence of current trading levels.
MCX’s recent performance highlights how volatility and price trends in underlying commodity markets can materially affect exchange revenues. For investors, the combination of stronger fees, a more diversified premium mix and upgraded EPS forecasts provides a supportive backdrop, but the premium valuation means risk management and consultation with certified advisers remain prudent.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. The views and any recommendations quoted from analysts or broking firms are their own and do not constitute investment advice. Readers should consult certified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
Key Takeaways:
- MCX share price jumped 3% after reports that Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating and raised the target price.
- Brokerage lifted EPS forecasts for FY26–FY28 and cited higher average daily transaction revenue powered by bullion trading.
- Shares have climbed about 80% in 2025 as gold and silver volumes surged following contract changes.
- Analysts warn valuations are rich but note continued ADTR could justify elevated multiples.
