The 2026 election cycle in Mato Grosso has already begun to take shape, with four pre-candidates positioning themselves for a fiercely contested race for the state’s top office. The emerging contest could mark a historic moment for Mato Grosso if it proceeds to a second round for the first time.
Mato Grosso governor race and the main contenders
Otaviano Pivetta, the sitting vice-governor from Republicanos, enters the race with clear advantages. He counts on the active support of Governor Mauro Mendes of União, and he benefits from access to the state administration’s structure. Political operatives note that, should Mendes resign to pursue a Senate bid, Pivetta would assume the governorship and campaign as the incumbent, a substantial boost in a tight contest.
Within the same political broad camp, Senator Jayme Campos of União is staking a claim to the nomination. Campos, who governed Mato Grosso from 1991 to 1995, is seeking to rebuild influence within União Brasil despite not enjoying Mendes’s backing. He has publicly affirmed that he will not withdraw his candidacy, signalling a potential intra-party challenge that could reshape alliances ahead of formal primaries.
From the PL, Senator Wellington Fagundes appears as a formidable contender. Backed by the party’s national leadership, Fagundes is widely regarded as a likely standard-bearer for former president Jair Bolsonaro in Mato Grosso. He has led opinion polls since early 2025 and retains strong support among mayors in strategic municipalities across the state. Fagundes’s previous run for governor in 2018 ended in second place, and party strategists see him as a candidate with both name recognition and organisational reach.
On the centre-left, physician Natasha Slhessarenko is the PSD pre-candidate. The party in Mato Grosso has moved closer to left-leaning forces, and if chosen to head that ticket she could receive backing from President Lula. Natasha carries a recognised political name: she is the daughter of former senator Serys Slhessarenko, the only PT member ever elected to the Senate from Mato Grosso. Her candidacy may consolidate voters seeking a progressive alternative to the established political blocs.
Party leaders and analysts are watching how alliances will form in the months ahead. The presence of multiple heavyweight figures increases the likelihood of a fragmented first round, which in turn raises the prospect of a run-off. For candidates, the path to victory will depend on coalition-building, municipal networks, and the ability to secure endorsements at both state and national levels.
The contest in Mato Grosso will be observed closely by national parties because of the state’s strategic importance. Control of the governor’s office can influence federal relations, budget allocations, and political momentum ahead of Senate and presidential contests. While the current field points to a competitive race, much remains uncertain: formal registrations, primary outcomes, and possible withdrawals could alter the balance substantially.
As the campaign season unfolds, voters can expect intensified campaigning across the state’s urban centres and rural areas alike. The key question for observers is whether any candidate can forge the broad alliances necessary to win outright in the first round or whether Mato Grosso will see its politics decided in a historic second round for 2026.
Key Takeaways:
- Four confirmed pre-candidates are vying to lead Mato Grosso in the 2026 election.
- Incumbent governor Mauro Mendes’s support and possible resignation give Otaviano Pivetta an institutional advantage.
- Senator Wellington Fagundes leads polls and may be the PL candidate backed by national leadership.
- The race could reach a second round for the first time in the state’s history.
