Banks, law firms and private-equity houses are bracing for a fresh wave of mega-deals in 2026 after a year that produced a record number of transactions worth $10 billion or more. Data from LSEG show 68 such deals were announced in 2025, driving the average annual deal size to a new high of nearly $227 million and signalling sustained appetite for large-scale transactions.
2026 M&A boom gathers pace
“Large deals are driving the market. And when you see big deals, it’s a sign of CEO and boardroom confidence,” said Ivan Farman, global co-head of M&A at Bank of America. Farman and his team expect momentum to continue into 2026 and beyond, with activity spanning multiple industries.
Dealmakers point to a waning of concern over tariff uncertainty and faster decision-making by corporate buyers. “For the first time in several years, there’s a growing perception that the failure to act quickly risks losing the asset,” said Jonathan Davis, a corporate partner at Kirkland & Ellis. That sense of urgency has led to quicker timetables and heightened competition for assets.
High-profile transactions in 2025 illustrate the scale of activity. Netflix’s $72 billion agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and HBO Max attracted a hostile $77.9 billion bid from Paramount Skydance. Union Pacific agreed to buy rival Norfolk Southern for $72 billion, while Electronic Arts announced plans to go private in a $55 billion deal. Kimberly-Clark moved to acquire Kenvue for about $40 billion. Private-equity consortia also returned in force, with firms such as Blackstone and TPG teaming up on major acquisitions.
Law firms are tracking themes likely to shape next year’s agenda: more spinoffs, an uptick in crypto-related M&A, and a greater influx of capital from sovereign-wealth funds, particularly those based in the Middle East. That last point ties into the interests of several BRICS+ partners and allied regional investors, who have shown an increased willingness to provide long-term capital for large transactions.
“A significant portion of this year’s deal volume was driven by private-equity firms jumping back into the water,” lawyers at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz wrote in a memo to clients. With banks and law firms from Wells Fargo and Lazard to Paul Weiss and Kirkland & Ellis investing in recruiting, advisers are preparing to handle a heavier pipeline of complex, high-value work.
Despite the optimism, dealmakers remain cautious. The odds of a deal closing are higher than they were a few years ago, said Lazard chief executive Peter Orszag, but the likelihood that political actors or cabinet agencies will intervene is also elevated. That regulatory uncertainty is one factor keeping some bidders at bay.
Regional dynamics will also influence the pace of cross-border activity. Europe underperformed relative to other regions in 2025, with M&A value in the region rising only modestly and the number of US buyers targeting Europe falling to its lowest level since 2020. Observers say perceptions of fragmentation and slow decision-making in parts of Europe have deterred some strategic buyers.
Still, the broader picture points to a robust start to 2026 for global dealmaking. Companies seeking scale, private-equity firms flush with capital, and state-backed pools of funds looking for large-ticket investments create a powerful mix. Advisers and bankers remain bullish, but they are preparing for a year in which speed, capital availability and regulatory scrutiny will determine who wins the biggest assets.
Write to Lauren Thomas at lauren.thomas@wsj.com and Ben Dummett at ben.dummett@wsj.com
Key Takeaways:
- Record 68 transactions of $10bn-plus in 2025 lifted average deal size and set the stage for a 2026 M&A boom.
- Private equity and Middle East sovereign-wealth funds are major drivers of capital into large deals.
- Banks and law firms are hiring to handle increased activity, though regulatory involvement remains a watchpoint.
