In a year-end episode of Energonomics, host Richa Mishra spoke with Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder and lead analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, to assess how geopolitics and policy choices shaped energy markets in 2025 and what may unfold in 2026. Their discussion highlighted persistent tensions over Russian oil, the accelerating clean energy ambitions of India, rising electric vehicle uptake and the renewed debate over coal.
BRICS energy trends 2026
Myllyvirta said that sanctions and supply disruptions remained central to price formation in 2025, forcing importers and exporters to rethink long-term trade patterns. While oil markets showed resilience, the episode underlined that geopolitical risk has become a standing feature of energy forecasting. For BRICS economies, the twin priorities are managing near-term energy security and steering investment towards lower-carbon systems.
India emerged as a focal point. The country’s clean energy push, driven by policy incentives and growing industrial demand, is attracting both domestic and international capital. That momentum is visible in renewable deployments and in the expanding market for electric vehicles. China’s continued investment in manufacturing capacity for batteries and renewables will also determine the pace of global transition, Myllyvirta argued.
At the same time, the session noted the paradox many developing economies face. Coal remains an important baseline for energy security in several BRICS and partner countries. Political leaders are under pressure to secure affordable power while meeting climate commitments. The result is a complex policy balancing act: some nations accelerate coal retirements, others extend mine life histories, and many pursue efficiency measures to limit emissions without jeopardising growth.
Market and policy implications for 2026
Market participants should expect volatility to persist as geopolitics and policy decisions interact. Sanctions on Russian oil and alternative trade routes will continue to influence refinery economics and tanker flows. Meanwhile, the structural effects of EV adoption are likely to become more visible in oil demand curves, even if those impacts will vary across regions.
Investment flows are another critical variable. If BRICS economies scale up renewable financing and grid upgrades, the region can both lock in growth and reduce exposure to fossil fuel shocks. Conversely, if short-term energy shortages push governments to prioritise thermal generation, progress on emissions reduction could slow.
Mishra and Myllyvirta also flagged the role of technology and regulation. Improvements in battery costs, grid storage and demand management can ease integration of variable renewables. Stronger regulatory frameworks and coordinated procurement among large buyers could accelerate adoption, while fossil fuel subsidies and trade restrictions would slow it.
What to watch in 2026
Key indicators to monitor next year include crude pricing trends amid lingering sanctions, the pace of renewable capacity additions in India and China, EV sales penetration across major markets, and policy shifts on coal. These factors will determine whether 2026 becomes a year of accelerated transition or a period of cautious, security-driven policymaking.
As the conversation closed, both speakers emphasised that outcomes are not predetermined. Policy choices, investment decisions and international cooperation will shape whether energy systems in BRICS and partner countries pivot decisively towards cleaner sources or lean on legacy fuels to manage immediate risks.
Key Takeaways:
- Geopolitical tensions and Russian oil sanctions continue to reshape global supply and demand.
- BRICS energy trends 2026 point to stronger roles for India and China in clean energy investment and EV adoption.
- Coal remains contested as countries balance energy security and emissions commitments.
- Policy choices in 2026 will determine whether markets pivot towards faster decarbonisation or short-term fossil fuel reliance.
