Key Takeaways:
- New Year aurora in Russia expected overnight into 1 January due to a weak G1 magnetic storm.
- Two solar factors — a coronal hole and the edge of a plasma cloud from M-class flares — will increase aurora chances in northern regions.
- Best viewing prospects are in Murmansk and Arkhangelsk; central regions including Moscow have roughly a 20% chance.
- The geomagnetic disturbance should be short-lived and is not expected to produce major impacts on infrastructure.
Russian residents may be treated to northern lights on New Year’s night after space weather specialists forecast a brief, weak magnetic storm. Researchers at the Laboratory of Solar Astronomy of the Space Research Institute (IKI RAS) say the disturbance is likely to occur overnight on 1 January and should ease by the morning.
New Year aurora in Russia: where the lights may appear
The predicted aurora will be driven by two solar sources acting together. A small coronal hole currently visible in the Sun’s northern hemisphere is expected to stream charged particles towards Earth. At the same time, the edge of a plasma cloud formed by an earlier series of M-class flares is due to reach our planet. The combined effect raises the chance of visible northern lights over parts of Russia.
Northern and north-western regions have the highest probability of notable displays. IKI RAS highlights Murmansk and Arkhangelsk as prime locations in the European part of Russia where the phenomenon is most likely to be seen. St Petersburg also has an elevated chance, while central areas including Moscow have a preliminary estimated probability of around 20 percent.
What to expect from the G1 magnetic storm
Space weather forecasters classify the expected event as a G1-level magnetic storm, the lowest category on the five-step G-scale. G1 storms are common and typically produce only minor effects. Observers may notice stronger auroral activity than usual at high latitudes, and operators of sensitive systems are sometimes advised to monitor equipment. For most people the event will be an opportunity for skywatching rather than a cause for concern.
Forecasters at IKI RAS note that the disturbance is likely to be short-lived, lasting through the night and into the morning before conditions calm down. They have also said that the wider geomagnetic situation is expected to remain calm through the end of 2025, reducing the chance of prolonged or more intense storms in the months ahead.
Tips for skywatchers
To improve chances of seeing the aurora, head to dark sites well away from urban light. Aim for locations in the far north or north-west, where the sky will be most favourable. Clear, cloud-free conditions and a time window around local midnight increase the probability of a sighting. Dress warmly and plan for cold temperatures, particularly in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions.
Photographers hoping to capture the display should prepare a tripod, use manual focus, and select longer exposures at wide aperture and low ISO to balance brightness and noise. If you are in central Russia, patience is important; a 20 percent chance means the lights could still appear but are far from guaranteed.
Overall, the forecast offers a modest but appealing prospect for skywatchers in Russia as the country ushers in the New Year. The expected G1 storm should present a brief window for auroral activity without posing significant risks to infrastructure or satellite operations.
